In its latest report, the International Data Corporation (IDC) projects a global smartphone shipment volume of 1.25 billion units for 2025. This represents a 1.5% increase compared to the 2024 figures. The forecast revision is primarily attributed to sustained strong demand for Apple’s upcoming iPhone 17 series.
Apple is anticipated to ship over 247 million units of the iPhone 17 series in 2025. This is bolstered by several key factors including increased sales during the holiday quarter, alongside growing demand in emerging markets, including China.
IDC’s China Monthly Sales data indicates that robust demand for the iPhone 17 has propelled Apple to the leading market position for two consecutive months, October and November. This better-than-anticipated performance has also allowed iOS to surpass Android and HarmonyOS in annual growth. This positive performance has led to an adjustment of Apple’s projected shipment decline in China for 2025 from -1% to +3%. Comparable trends are also observed in the United States and Western Europe.
However, the IDC forecasts a 1% decline in global smartphone shipments for 2026. This projection is influenced by rising memory component costs, which are anticipated to increase the average selling price of smartphones to $465. Furthermore, Apple’s rumored shift of the base iPhone 18 launch from Fall 2026 to early 2027 is expected to negatively impact market figures in 2026, contributing to the projected shipment decrease.
